[SMM Cobalt Morning Meeting Summary] On Monday, refined cobalt prices fell slightly, with supply and demand constraints continuing to cause short-term fluctuations

Refined cobalt:

Refined cobalt prices dropped slightly on Monday. Supply side, smelters maintained long-term contract supply with limited spot quotations, ex-factory prices remained unchanged. Domestic futures prices declined, prompting traders to lower their offers. Demand side, as social inventory of refined cobalt remained high while downstream demand showed no significant improvement, most downstream enterprises continued just-in-time procurement, resulting in sluggish actual trading volume. Refined cobalt prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term.

Intermediate products:

Cobalt intermediate product spot prices continued their upward trend on Monday, with transactions reported around 12.1-12.2. Supply side, most enterprises maintained bullish sentiment and suspended quotations, while a few raised their offers further. Demand side, smelters faced challenges including production losses and weak downstream demand. Amid market uncertainty, most enterprises opted to consume existing inventory, while smelters with low stock inquired about low-priced cargoes. Overall, due to DRC's delayed policies, China's cobalt intermediate products will face raw material shortages, providing upward momentum for prices, though the potential demand suppression from rising raw material costs warrants attention.

Cobalt sulphate:

Cobalt sulphate prices rose slightly on Monday, with transactions reported at 4.9-5.1 and some large producers achieving limited deals around 5.2. Supply side, enterprises maintained bullish sentiment as smelters and traders further raised new cargo quotations. Demand side, downstream ternary orders showed no significant improvement, prompting buyers to adopt a wait-and-see approach and digest existing inventory. Co3O4 producers made some purchases at relatively favorable prices, while refined cobalt procurement remained suspended due to poor cost efficiency. Overall, with market uncertainty persisting, price discrepancies between buyers and sellers remained—upstream insisted on high prices while downstream purchase willingness stayed weak, leading to limited actual transactions. Cobalt sulphate prices may continue fluctuating with an upward bias this week.

Cobalt chloride:

Current cobalt chloride offers stood at 61,000-63,000 yuan/mt, with only limited transactions in a sluggish market. Supply side, smelters maintained strong wait-and-see sentiment with minimal trading volume. Demand side, downstream enterprises held relatively sufficient inventory, actively inquiring but remaining cautious. Price-wise, though smelters quoted higher, actual transactions mostly occurred around 6.1, with few deals at 6.2. Cobalt chloride prices are expected to stabilize within the 6.1-6.2 range in the short term.

Cobalt salt (Co3O4):

Current Co3O4 offers ranged between 200,000-220,000 yuan/mt, with both upstream and downstream adopting wait-and-see stances—most transactions involved long-term contract deliveries. Supply side, Co3O4 producers monitored overall market sentiment and demand, releasing limited cargoes. Demand side, LCO cathode plants held relatively low inventory but remained cautious due to strong market sentiment influence. Price-wise, producers expected transactions at 210,000-220,000 yuan/mt, though high-priced deals remained scarce. Long-term Co3O4 prices will depend on cobalt inventory levels, with current industry stock adequacy through December being a key pricing factor.

Cobalt powder and others:

Cobalt powder offers remained firm this week due to prolonged raw material import delays. Despite increased inquiry activity from downstream alloy enterprises, sluggish alloy market demand kept actual trading volume limited. Facing dual pressures of high costs and weak demand, alloy producers maintained cautious wait-and-see attitudes, adopting more prudent purchasing decisions. The trading atmosphere stayed sluggish, with the supply-demand tug-of-war likely to continue in the short term.

Ternary cathode precursor:

Ternary precursor prices rose on Monday. Raw material costs, nickel sulphate and manganese sulphate prices showed limited fluctuations while cobalt sulphate prices increased, driving absolute precursor prices upward. Spot order discount coefficients remained largely unchanged. Overall ternary market demand stayed mediocre, lacking solid support for price increases. Battery cell manufacturers retained pricing power over discount coefficients, showing muted response to cobalt sulphate price hikes—overall discount strategies stayed stable with no imminent changes expected. Demand side, domestic NEV market showed increased demand for 6-series products while overseas demand for 8-series grew slightly, though orders concentrated mainly among leading producers. Consumer market demand remained flat. Supply side, production schedules are expected to rebound as restocking begins in July.

Ternary cathode material:

Prices for 5-series, 6-series and 8-series ternary materials rose on Monday. Raw materials, nickel sulphate and manganese sulphate prices stayed basically flat while cobalt sulphate and lithium carbonate posted significant gains, with lithium hydroxide's decline slowing. Weak market demand and battery cell manufacturers' dominant pricing position limited substantial price increase potential. Downstream response to cobalt sulphate price hikes remained muted, with discount coefficients expected to stay stable. Demand side, new car models in the NEV market drove moderate stockpiling, with orders concentrated among leading cell manufacturers. Overseas order transfers somewhat impacted cathode material orders. Consumer markets remained in traditional off-season with mediocre order performance. Supply side, ternary material production is expected to increase slightly as restocking begins in July.

LCO:

Recent LCO prices rose significantly due to raw material cost increases: battery-grade lithium carbonate prices continued climbing while Co3O4 prices showed strong upward momentum influenced by DRC policies. Supply side, Co3O4 producers offered at high prices while LCO cathode plants showed low purchase willingness. Demand side, end-use demand is entering off-season, reducing LCO requirements. Overall, LCO prices will rise substantially following Co3O4 and lithium carbonate price increases.

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Cong Wang 021-51666838

Rui Ma 021-51595780

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Zhicheng Zhou 021-51666711

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